WSOP Event #2 recap

Monday I played Event #2 in the WSOP, a $1500 buy in event.  We started with 4500 chips and the blinds started at 25/25 with one hour levels.  Even though this starting stack is shorter than a lot of deep stack events it is still an excellent structure.  Both Derrick and I were competing in this event and we were ready!  I found my table in the Amazon room, my table was Purple 429, seat 9.  The WSOP is held in the convention center area of the Rio.  There are three massive rooms used for the events, and each room is divided into different sections by color so it is easier to find your table.  I looked around my table and it didn't seem like there were many skilled players at my table.  Just to prove my point, seat one in his first two hands was dealt a flopped full house, then AA, and won the absolute minimum in both.  A couple hands later seat 3 put in a stupid bluff on the river to waste some chips.  (If you are going to bluff, put out more than the minimum bet into a big pot!!)  This was going to be a good day!!  Here were my first three hands:

Hand 1: about ten hands in I was dealt AT in middle position in a 7 handed game.  I raised to 75 and the small blind called.  The pot was 175 and the flop came out 884.  He checked, I bet 100 and he called.  Always ask yourself why is your opponent making the action he does?

• does he have nothing and is setting up a bluff?  HIGHLY unlikely.  He isn't very good and it's way too early in the tournament to do something like this anyway...
• did he flop trips (an 8 in his hand and two on the board)?  Mathematically it is very hard to flop trips, especially since he is the only other player in the hand, but possible.
• does he have a pair (a 4 or a small pair in his hand - 33,55,66,etc.) MOST LIKELY

The turn was a 2.  If he thought he was best on the flop he's still best.  If he has an 8 I'm toast.  If 

he has nothing I'm still ahead.  No reason to bet so I check.  The river is a T.  He checks again. Once he checks the river he does not have an 8 in his hand.  (Bad players play trips by calling the flop, checking the turn to hope you are an idiot and bet again with the hopes of check-raising, then when you don't bet the turn they bet the river to make sure they get some value out of their hand.)  So, he most likely has a small pair.  (If he was planning some weird bluff he would have put some chips in the pot by now).  The pot is 375 and I want to bet on the higher side to get him to make a crying call but not too big that he gives up.  I bet 225 and after some agonizing thinking he calls.  We win.

Hand 2: The very next hand I was dealt AK and raised to 75.  The button called and the bb called. The pot was 250 and the flop came Q63.  The bb checked, I checked and the button checked.  I can definitely bet this flop as it is most likely they both missed, but I didn't for three reasons:  

1. I felt they were weaker players and wouldn't take a stab at the pot without a hand.
2. If the button did make a bet I felt was strong I could fold as I only have 75 invested
3. I just bet the flop with nothing so maybe now that I check the flop they'll give me credit for a hand and I'll get to see a free card for cheap

The turn came an A, so now life is good again!  The bb checked, I bet small and they both folded immediately.

I called a couple small raises from the blinds in the next couple rounds with some hands with possibilities (53s, J9c, etc.) but whiffed on them.  Then came THE hand....

Hand 3: A girl sat down on my right to make our table 8 handed.  She wins a pot with what was probably quads  (777 on the board and probably a 7 in her hand).   The next hand she opens the pot with a raise to 100.  I look down at JJ and re-raise to 275.  (I don't want to call and encourage a 5-6 way pot.  By re-raising I am taking control of the pot and getting a pot heads up where I will play in position for the remainder of the hand.)  Everyone folds and she calls.  The pot is 600 and the flop comes out QhJd7c.  And bingo was his name-o!  I just flopped gin and now the goal is to build as big a pot as possible.  QQ is the only hand that beats me and I beat everything else.  Remember that the goal in poker is to build big pots with big hands and smaller pots with smaller hands.  She checks and I bet 325.  She calls and the pot is now 1250.  The turn is the 3h.  This is a very safe card except for the possibility of a flush draw now developing.  She leads out and bets 250 into the pot of 1250.  This is a very small bet!  What does it mean?  Most likely it is a blocking bet and she wants to see the river card for cheap.  Why would she do this?  KK,AA are possible, AQ is very likely, KQh and AKh are possible, KT suited?, maybe she has 77 and is trying to induce me to bet.  In all cases I am ahead and I need to continue to build the pot.  I raise the pot 1850 more, but before I do here were my thoughts (remember to think about future actions when debating your current action):

• If somehow she has QQ she will check raise me all in and I will call her bet and get knocked out of the tournament minus a miracle river card.  Set over set (a set is a pair in your hand and one of that card on the board) is extremely rare in poker and is called a "cooler".  You can go months without seeing this.  
• If she has value hands I am beating (AA,KK, AQ most likely, 77) I need to get her to put more chips into the pot so I can attach her to the pot.  She will then be much more likely to call my river bet.
• If she does have a drawing hand (KTs, KQh, AKh, etc.) I need to charge her to draw to the last card.  BUT, I also realize before making my bet that if a draw does get completed on the river she is absolutely going to put me all in.  There is no way she is going to call 1850 into a pot that will be roughly 6300 and not put me all in for my last 1600 or so if she hits.  She wouldn't take the chance of checking and having me check behind. If she calls my river bet AND a scary card comes on the river AND she puts me all in I will have to think about what I am going to do.  It's going to be a tough decision!

I make the decision to raise 1850 more and if a scare card comes on the river and she just checks then she did NOT complete a draw and I will go ahead with my plan to extract value.  I raise and she just calls.  The river is the worst card in the deck - the Ah!  She checks!!  Well, I hate this card but I am sticking with my plan.  I go all in for my remaining chips; she hesitates, thinks and finally calls.  Did she really hit a draw!?  I turn over JJ and she turns over QQ!!! I'm out!  A pretty fitting ending to this trip I guess.  

As always, I wanted to critically analyze my play so I asked Derrick on his break if I should check the river or do something different to save some chips. He basically said "Come on dude, you flopped the second nuts. You have to get your chips in there. You got coolered.  There's nothing you can do.  Next tournament."  I had a couple people question why I bet the river with such a scary card that hit. The basic question was "What hand could you beat?" I really appreciate the question and definitely consider other opinions.  But the thing in poker is you cannot be results oriented.  If she turned over AQ or 77 or KK (remember, by just check calling flop and just calling turn with the nuts she is clearly putting me on a bluff so it would actually make complete sense for her to call the river with KK) I don't think anyone questions it.  I think everyone says "great bet, great thinking, etc." and I think that is wrong to do also.  Poker is all about the process, not the results or what cards actually are shown. She will turn over AQ or 77 WAY more than QQ and she will turn over KK just as often as QQ.  At the end of the day I think my thought process was excellent and my execution in the face of scary cards was excellent.  Very happy with the results of my process!.  Note how poorly she played the turn.  To just call with the nuts with lots of draws out there is just weird.  And wrong.  If she is putting me on an absolute complete bluff in the first level of the tournament then check and calling is ok I guess, but it would be supremely bizarre for someone to take this line in the first level of a major event. 

The good news from the tournament was that Derrick cashed!  He truly is a superstar player that is all about the process of getting better every day and not worrying about the results.  He sent me texts of a lot of his hands during the event and he played extremely well.  Still, it's important to understand that no matter how well you play you do need a certain amount of good fortune during a tournament to off set any bad misfortune that arises.  He had a couple of important hands go his way, but the fact of the matter is he played both hands perfectly.  And as good as Derrick is he had a few hands where he would be the first to admit he made a mistake in the hand.  I guarantee you he won't make those same mistakes again.